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lowest temperature has fallen year on year, and the average temperature has fallen year on year. It definitely seems to be getting colder and colder. I remember predictions that we would never have snow in December again and Christmas cards were going to have to change. But white Christmases are becoming more likely, not less. moving from London back to his home town of Penrith, Carl has constructed a high tech weather station which records wind speeds, humidity and dew levels, rainfall, pressure, air temperature, soil temperature and various other numbers to crunch.
Carl Fallowfield has been monitoring the Cumbrian weather for the past four years and he traces a marked downward trend in temperatures.
days ahead, but I think it looks like it going to get milder by the end of the week. another local weather watcher disputes Carl conclusion that winters are on a downward trend. Elizabeth Barraclough takes a longer view.
think it get warmer again. The direction of the wind has a big impact, and we had wind from the north east lately, but now it coming from the north west which is still cold, but not quite so cold. So I don see a cold snap going on for much longer than a couple of weeks, and we already had this one for nearly two weeks now. At least that my hope. amateur weather watchers may be divided, but the professionals aren taking sides just yet.
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What makes the drop more striking is that in early December it is usually warmer than the average for the whole month.
Elizabeth, who is county councillor for Keswick and Derwent, has been measuring rainfall, air pressure and maximum and minimum temperatures for 17 years now, and says: for fun, I also record whether I can see the top of Scafell Pike. though she agrees with Carl that this Omega Co Axial 2500
The month is only nine days old, but it is already the coldest December we have had since Carl started recording them.
at the crossroads of the world weather, he explains. are right out towards the Atlantic with a warm ocean to provide moisture, but to the north we have the Arctic, to the east we have a vast continent, and to the south we have the Sahara.
back we hardly ever got snow before Christmas it didn usually start until January, Carl points out. never seen such a huge drop in temperatures so early.
The snow and Arctic temperatures we suffered over the last two weeks may be the shape of winters to come.
snow in December was destined to become a thing of the past and it was seriously suggested that Christmas card designers might have to make some drastic changes.
the wind backs and the glass falls, be on your guard for rain or squalls. Thin, wispy clouds mean falling pressure, which almost always mean rain.
don think we had snow at low level in November since 1985, says Elizabeth. really is quite unusual and these low temperatures are also unusual. If you do get early snow it usually goes away again, but this started on Nike Windrunner Jacket Boys Grade School November 26 and none of it has gone. But on the whole, apart from the last couple of years we had it milder. It only in the last two years that we had what I would call a proper winter. In Keswick the real criterion is whether you can skate on the lake.
Not everyone will be happy about it, but he believes more snowy Decembers like this one are on the cards and set to remain on the Christmas cards.
Early berries on a holly bush are said to forecast a cold winter. Ian admits these can sometimes be useful: lore is extremely accurate for a local area, provided you use it correctly.
Idyllic icy views of skaters on a frozen lake, grinning snowmen with pebbles for smiles and plump robins perched on silvery branched trees will be here to stay for some time.
makes the nasty weather more fun, he explains. people look out thinking: can go out in this. I think: 30 millimetres of rain, maybe we going to break a record. it means he has all the data at his fingertips. is 6.5 lower than the average temperature for the last three Decembers. So there no doubt winters have been getting colder. sees the coldness of recent winters as evidence against global warming, while others argue that these extremes of temperature are being caused by it. He says: coldness that is the problem here, not warming. I sure wildlife would prefer milder winters.
are influences from four situations and because we at this point our weather is unique. can be particularly hard to forecast, since only a small drop in temperature of a few degrees will turn rain into snow.
it won last for long. North east winds could start to move down again next week. weather forecasters in Britain have it harder than those in many other parts of the world because of our position on the planet, according to another forecaster, Ian Currie.
was some skating last year and I think the year before, but before that there hadn been any for nine years. We have to measure it for a lot longer than the last few years. as for the outlook?
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It is not winter until Derwent Water freezes over
You can really call it a winter, she adds, unless Derwent Water freezes over.
is the worst snow and ice we had in December since 1981, says forecaster John Hammond. you can say winters are getting worse and you can say they not. We are only one week into this one. John does make a short term prediction. got a bit of respite coming up over the weekend, so there could be a bit of a thaw during the day.
it a mistake to take any one prediction method by itself. You should use five or six together. Some of them are just hopeless. The St Swithin Day rhyme is useless, and the idea that cows lying down is a sign of rain is completely inaccurate too. other weather proverbs can be a useful guide to winter, Ian concedes. They include:
cold October will mean a mild winter. sky, mackerel sky, never long wet and never long dry. If the sky is dotted and stripped with small clouds, the weather will be changeable.
I would rather it was warm and mild in winter. This is costing me a fortune in fuel. not always possible to foretell future weather from the past and present and Carl warns against making confident predictions.
depends on wind direction too, he adds. only takes a slight change for the snow to miss us altogether. you don need high tech equipment to hazard a guess at how things will turn out. For years before scientific weather forecasts we relied on folklore, proverbs and old wives tales to predict the weather.
The Met Office classify December, January and February as the winter months and believe it is too far too early to draw any conclusions about the overall shape of the season.
is an extraordinarily early winter and some other recent winters have been colder than usual she believes the overall trend is for milder ones.
can depend on which way the wind is blowing. It may be the coldest average December for the month so far, we but we can really say what the weather will be like at the end of the month.
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